Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.003700 0.003881 0.004066 0.004270 0.004487 0.004714 0.004967
2025-02-09 0.003339 0.003606 0.003892 0.004219 0.004585 0.004983 0.005452
2025-02-16 0.003136 0.003455 0.003803 0.004215 0.004691 0.005226 0.005879
2025-02-23 0.002970 0.003322 0.003716 0.004192 0.004756 0.005409 0.006228
2025-03-02 0.002872 0.003256 0.003694 0.004234 0.004889 0.005665 0.006669
2025-03-09 0.002747 0.003149 0.003614 0.004198 0.004920 0.005794 0.006953
2025-03-16 0.002636 0.003051 0.003538 0.004159 0.004941 0.005906 0.007214
2025-03-23 0.002522 0.002944 0.003445 0.004092 0.004919 0.005959 0.007396
2025-03-30 0.002421 0.002848 0.003360 0.004030 0.004898 0.006008 0.007571
2025-04-06 0.002362 0.002801 0.003333 0.004038 0.004966 0.006172 0.007906
2025-04-13 0.002237 0.002666 0.003191 0.003893 0.004825 0.006051 0.007838
2025-04-20 0.002193 0.002633 0.003175 0.003909 0.004897 0.006217 0.008180
2025-04-27 0.002188 0.002648 0.003223 0.004013 0.005094 0.006568 0.008812
2025-05-04 0.002118 0.002579 0.003160 0.003966 0.005083 0.006628 0.009022
2025-05-11 0.002070 0.002537 0.003131 0.003962 0.005131 0.006771 0.009363
2025-05-18 0.002019 0.002488 0.003090 0.003942 0.005152 0.006876 0.009649
2025-05-25 0.001993 0.002472 0.003093 0.003980 0.005258 0.007108 0.010146
2025-06-01 0.001943 0.002421 0.003046 0.003946 0.005258 0.007181 0.010392
2025-06-08 0.001894 0.002371 0.002999 0.003911 0.005253 0.007246 0.010626
2025-06-15 0.001838 0.002310 0.002935 0.003849 0.005206 0.007242 0.010744
2025-06-22 0.001786 0.002254 0.002876 0.003792 0.005164 0.007243 0.010869
2025-06-29 0.001759 0.002231 0.002862 0.003800 0.005219 0.007398 0.011268
2025-07-06 0.001686 0.002141 0.002753 0.003666 0.005053 0.007195 0.011025